From Polar Bear Science
According to an Inside Climate News report, polar bear researchers on the US Geological Survey had hassle darting bears within the Southern Beaufort Sea in March-May of 2019 and 2021. They declare their analysis program was hampered by thinner-than-necessary ice for safely touchdown the practically 4,000 lb. outfitted helicopter (with crew and equipment) in 2019 however that situations in 2021 had been even worse (it's implied work proceeded in 2020 regardless of pandemic restrictions however no knowledge for that 12 months are mentioned).
However, this declare of worse situations in 2021 is just not corroborated by studies from sea ice consultants and ice charts for the Southern Beaufort this spring, the place thick first 12 months and multiyear ice was current from March by June. Ice didn’t start to draw back from landfast ice to type patches of open water close to the Canadian border till late April 2021 in comparison with early May in 2019 (because it did in 2016), as proven within the video and charts beneath. Moreover, the researchers oddly fail to say that the presence of skinny ice and open water in spring is important for polar bear survival within the Southern Beaufort, a reality which has been documented and mentioned within the scientific literature by their colleagues.https://www.youtube.com/embed/ripxNhk-fGg?version=3&rel=1&showsearch=0&showinfo=1&iv_load_policy=1&fs=1&hl=en&autohide=2&wmode=transparent
“Polar Bears Are Suffering from the Arctic’s Loss of Sea Ice. So Is Scientists’ Ability to Study Them” (D. Hasemyer, Inside Climate News, 5 October 2021).
The reporter tries to color an image of polar bears struggling hurt from these latest situations however actually there isn't any revealed knowledge from the Southern Beaufort after 2016, and any results claimed to have been documented in bears as much as that 12 months haven't been conclusively demonstrated to have been brought on by sea ice loss (Crockford 2021) as a result of a correlation is just not proof of causation.
The ICN ‘story’ is mostly a large whine from researchers about not with the ability to work over the past three years due to climate situations, used as a car to reiterate their unfounded claims that these situations have negatively impacted Southern Beaufort polar bears.
“The condition of the sea ice has deteriorated so much that it’s been three years since Atwood and his colleagues have been able to physically examine a bear. When you’re studying polar bears, you need polar bears to study, is Atwood’s mantra.”
The ICN headline blames “loss of sea ice” for the on-going drawback with doing polar bear analysis within the Southern Beaufort however the story contains knowledge that exhibits greater than half of the issue is fog, though they don’t say at what time of 12 months fog is an issue (March or May?).
The hotter Arctic waters have been linked to polar vortexes, unpredictable extreme climate and heatwaves.
That’s on a world entrance. But in Atwood’s a lot smaller world the warming means extra fog. And extra fog means much less flying time, as a result of visibility drops to close zero within the dense, sheet-white vapor.
By his depend, the variety of appropriate flying days has dropped by greater than half over the past 20 years due to fog.
Looking again at flight logs, Atwood mentioned, he discovered that fog grounded the middle’s analysis helicopters about 24 % of the time between 2000 and 2009.
That quantity elevated to 46 % between 2010 and 2015; and jumped to 56 % over the past 5 years. It correlates with warming temperatures and disappearing sea ice. “We are losing over half of the time we could be in the air surveying the bears,” he mentioned.
Read all the sordid story right here.
S. Beaufort ice situations 2021 Port Barrow to the Canadian Border March-May
Thick first 12 months ice (>1.2m) and outdated, multiyear ice (darkish inexperienced and brown) dominated with just a few patches of thinner ice (gentle inexperienced and purple):
April 2021
May 2021
Western Beaufort ice situations 2021, late May
The open water was not widespread throughout Alaska:
Southern Beaufort ice situations 2019, March-May
Much extra skinny first 12 months ice (gentle inexperienced) near shore in early March 2019 in comparison with 2021:
By mid April 2019, that skinny first 12 months ice had change into thick first 12 months ice no less than 1.2 m thick (darkish inexperienced) with just a few scattered skinny patches in areas the place polynya formation is routine:
By early May 2019, there have been some patches of open water in between thick ice:
Western Beaufort 2019, late May
Not talked about in any respect on this article is the truth that in spring within the Southern Beaufort, areas of skinny ice or open water inside areas of thick spring ice are important to ringed and bearded seals as areas for respiratory and resting on the ice between feeding bouts, and that polar bears are drawn to these areas as a result of they're looking hot-spots. I've mentioned this extensively (with references) right here, right here, and most just lately right here.
Here is a quote from my 2015 put up from a paper by Smith and Rigby (1981:24) on the event of open water in japanese Beaufort, 1975-1979:
“Some open water can be found in virtually all months somewhere in western Amundsen Gulf in the area of Cape Bathurst, Cape Parry, and Cape Kellet (Banks Island). Open water can appear as early as sometime in December, although it is not until April that a characteristic form to the polynya appears. …
During each of the 5 years [of the study: 1975-1979] an open lead developed off the eastern side of Cape Bathurst sometime in January (Fig.14a). This coincided with the appearance of open water just north of Cape Parry in 4 of the 5 years.
Open water remains in the general area, in some form, until late May to early June when, characteristically, the area between Cape Bathurst and Cape Kellett opens up to form a disintegration area. Until April, the size, shape, and location of open water is quite variable by month and by year (e. g. Fig. 14b). By April in most years, however, the polynya exhibits a more or less typical form (Fig. l4(c-f). With the advance of break-up, the open water between Cape Bathurst and Cape Kellett enlarges into Amundsen Gulf. In addition, open water develops northwards, along Banks Island, and westwards to Mackenzie Bay (see Fig. 14g. h).
The extent to which the shorelead polynya system in the Beaufort Sea is open is mainly dependent upon wind since this influences the movement of the Arctic pack. The coast was open to Mackenzie Bay in all five summers, and as far west as Barter Island in three.” [my bold]
In that 2015 put up I additionally quoted this paragraph from a 1981 paper by Stirling and colleagues (Stirling et al. 1981:54) that explains why these Southern Beaufort spring polynyas are so necessary to polar bears:
“One useful approach is to ask what would happen if the polynya was not there? Obviously this is impossible to evaluate on an experimental basis, but by examining the consequences or natural seasonal variation, some useful insights can be gained. For example, the influence of rapidly changing ice conditions on the availability of open water, and consequently on populations of seals and polar bears, has been observed in the western Arctic. Apparently in response to severe ice conditions in the Beaufort Sea during winter 1973-74, and to a lesser degree in winter 1974-75, numbers of ringed and bearded seals dropped by about 50% and productivity by about 90%. Concomitantly, numbers and productivity of polar bears declined markedly because of the reduction in the abundance of their prey species. …If the shoreleads of the western Arctic or Hudson Bay ceased opening during winter and spring, the effect on marine mammals would be devastating.”[my bold]
Bottom line: The formation of patchy and/or skinny sea ice within the Southern Beaufort near shore in spring is a attribute of the area recognized for the reason that Seventies that's important to the survival of seals and polar bears, not a harmful anomaly that may be blamed on latest local weather change. Not with the ability to land a 4,000 pound helicopter on spring ice each time and the place ever they like between early March and late May is a analysis constraint for scientists slightly than a survival difficulty for polar bears. Furthermore, it isn't obvious that sea ice situations in 2021 had been any “worse” that 2019 for both helicopters or polar bears though fog could have been worse in 2021.
References
Crockford, S.J. 2021. The State of the Polar Bear Report 2020. Global Warming Policy Foundation Report 48, London. pdf right here.
Smith, M. and Rigby, B. 1981. Distribution of polynyas within the Canadian Arctic. In: Polynyas within the Canadian Arctic, Stirling, I. and Cleator, H. (eds), pg. 7-28. Canadian Wildlife Service, Occasional Paper No. 45. Ottawa.
Stirling, I, Cleator, H. and Smith, T.G. 1981. Marine mammals. In: Polynyas within the Canadian Arctic, Stirling, I. and Cleator, H. (eds), pg. 45-58. Canadian Wildlife Service, Occasional Paper No. 45. Ottawa.
Pdf of pertinent excerpts of above papers right here.
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